Excellent presentation of how to use these surprises. Effectively, they give a clear indication of how people HAVE been positioned- but in a different way than the CoTs...
It's a lot less specific than COT: it measures expectations vs. reality, so going from that to actual positioning is already a bit of a stretch... reasonable but it's not the same. And then the question is: positioning in what? Currencies are the most direct investment in the performance of an economy IMHO, but what about stocks? Would be interesting to see if/how CESI works with other assets.
Excellent presentation of how to use these surprises. Effectively, they give a clear indication of how people HAVE been positioned- but in a different way than the CoTs...
Thank you 🙏
It's a lot less specific than COT: it measures expectations vs. reality, so going from that to actual positioning is already a bit of a stretch... reasonable but it's not the same. And then the question is: positioning in what? Currencies are the most direct investment in the performance of an economy IMHO, but what about stocks? Would be interesting to see if/how CESI works with other assets.
Sure, it’s like a longer term professional sentiment indicator. The nature of the individual surprises would guide us to the relevant assets, imho.