If you look at last week's COT table, Commercials and Large Trader net positions for EUR/6E are at 0.00 and 1.00, i.e. both are at 52-week extremes: Commercials are extremely short and Large Traders are extremely long. That's bearish, especially since the Z-score of 1-week position changes was -1.91 for the Commercials, so their increased their short position increased by almost 2 SD. When you look at COT/TFF data, the chart for 6E is right in the middle of its 2-year range, %R is 0.59.
So, all in all I think it's a bearish positioning. I'm not reading too much into it, though, because it's not good for timing and can stay that way for a while.
Thank you for the kind words!
If you look at last week's COT table, Commercials and Large Trader net positions for EUR/6E are at 0.00 and 1.00, i.e. both are at 52-week extremes: Commercials are extremely short and Large Traders are extremely long. That's bearish, especially since the Z-score of 1-week position changes was -1.91 for the Commercials, so their increased their short position increased by almost 2 SD. When you look at COT/TFF data, the chart for 6E is right in the middle of its 2-year range, %R is 0.59.
So, all in all I think it's a bearish positioning. I'm not reading too much into it, though, because it's not good for timing and can stay that way for a while.
Hope that helps.
thank you, appreciate!
One of the best macro outlook article I've read recently. So much to learn. Thank you!
One question tho, at the EUR summary its written that COT for eur is bearish. Isn't the net long 64.2% as of last week?
25-delta risk reversal charts are from tradingview?
They're from Xenith/Refinitiv. Tradingview doesn't have them, unfortunately.
if I don't have Refinitiv.. Where can I find historical data for 25 delta options?
Good question... I don't know any other source, unfortunately.
Mester (Hawk). Thu: October CPI shows signs of moderation of inflation, main risk on inflation is that the Fed doesn't hike rates enough.
This is incredibly ignorant on their part. It really shows the academic approach is very backward looking.
Because they are focused on a lagging indicator?
Yes- the magnitude of FFR increases is only starting to be felt.