FX:MACRO - Week 37/2023

"Goals are the roadmaps to success."

Welcome to issue #72 of fx:macro!

From next week, access to all the material including the Outlook and Summary will require a paid subscription. You can sign up by clicking on the following link:

It's been one of these weeks where my initial assumptions of what to trade have been completely wrong but I've been saved by paying attention to the market's sentiment and reaction to headlines. The idea was to look for a dollar short because of a weak calendar, how the economic surprise index was developing and September seasonality. Tuesday morning saw quite some dollar strength, and when the dollar just put in a brief dip when Waller made some dovish comments about the risks of doing too much and too little being balanced, it was pretty clear I my idea was wrong. A few months ago, I've written a day-by-day summary for a similar week, I hope you find it helpful.

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There's a lot of material in this newsletter, so I included a Summary table with the most important info in one place. Everything you find there is derived from data and news in the accompanying PDFs. It's not necessary to go through them all but they provide a lot of depth and background. Skip them if you're short on time or just read the ones that are relevant for you.

If you like this newsletter please consider sharing or forwarding it to others who might be interested in it. I'm also on Twitter @fxmacroguy if you want to reach out.

Summary

Research folder with all material: Google Drive

Playbook

This is the shortest possible summary of everything you will find in the rest of this newsletter. Please check out this article about what this summary aims to provide and what its limitations are.

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Currency Drivers

For an explanation check out this link.

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Week in Review

Central bank speaker recap for the week: Download PDF

Review of central bank events and economic data for this week: Download PDF

• RBA Rate Decision and statement

• BOC Rate Decision and statement

• ISM Services PMI

Market Analysis

• Download PDF

• Summary table, currency drivers, economic calendar, FX levels

• Charts and data on growth, inflation, interest rates, central banks, equity sectors, sentiment and positioning, market risks and more

Additional Material

Central bank overview with the summaries of each of the latest rate decisions, rate statements and minutes: Download PDF

Central bank meeting preps for next week’s events with latest rate decision, statement, press conference and minutes, economic data since the last rate decision and summarized comments from every speaker:

• ECB: Download PDF

Intraday seasonalities for currencies and major assets: Download PDF

Commitment of Traders for the relevant futures: Download PDF