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FX:MACRO - Week 37/2023

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FX:MACRO - Week 37/2023

"Goals are the roadmaps to success."

Sep 9, 2023
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FX:MACRO - Week 37/2023

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Welcome to issue #72 of fx:macro!

From next week, access to all the material including the Outlook and Summary will require a paid subscription. You can sign up by clicking on the following link:

Subscribe to fx:macro Premium

It's been one of these weeks where my initial assumptions of what to trade have been completely wrong but I've been saved by paying attention to the market's sentiment and reaction to headlines. The idea was to look for a dollar short because of a weak calendar, how the economic surprise index was developing and September seasonality. Tuesday morning saw quite some dollar strength, and when the dollar just put in a brief dip when Waller made some dovish comments about the risks of doing too much and too little being balanced, it was pretty clear I my idea was wrong. A few months ago, I've written a day-by-day summary for a similar week, I hope you find it helpful.

A very instructive week...

FXMacroGuy
ยท
Mar 9
A very instructive week...

In this article, we will go through a series of trading days from Monday to Thursday and see how news and data lead to trading ideas and decisions. Before we do that, however, I have included a short (-ish) introduction on how that ties in with my weekend prep (i.e. my newsletter) and with my overall trading style.

Read full story

There's a lot of material in this newsletter, so I included a Summary table with the most important info in one place. Everything you find there is derived from data and news in the accompanying PDFs. It's not necessary to go through them all but they provide a lot of depth and background. Skip them if you're short on time or just read the ones that are relevant for you.

If you like this newsletter please consider sharing or forwarding it to others who might be interested in it. I'm also on Twitter @fxmacroguy if you want to reach out.

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Summary

Research folder with all material: Google Drive

Playbook

This is the shortest possible summary of everything you will find in the rest of this newsletter. Please check out this article about what this summary aims to provide and what its limitations are.


Currency Drivers

For an explanation check out this link.


Week in Review

Central bank speaker recap for the week: Download PDF

Review of central bank events and economic data for this week: Download PDF

  • RBA Rate Decision and statement

  • BOC Rate Decision and statement

  • ISM Services PMI

Market Analysis

  • Download PDF

  • Summary table, currency drivers, economic calendar, FX levels

  • Charts and data on growth, inflation, interest rates, central banks, equity sectors, sentiment and positioning, market risks and more

Additional Material

Central bank overview with the summaries of each of the latest rate decisions, rate statements and minutes: Download PDF

Central bank meeting preps for next weekโ€™s events with latest rate decision, statement, press conference and minutes, economic data since the last rate decision and summarized comments from every speaker:

  • ECB: Download PDF

Intraday seasonalities for currencies and major assets: Download PDF

Commitment of Traders for the relevant futures: Download PDF

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FX:MACRO - Week 37/2023

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FX:MACRO - Week 37/2023

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Maverick Equity Research
Writes Maverick Equity Research
Sep 9Liked by FXMacroGuy

thank you, great take!

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