FX:MACRO - Week 36/2023

"In the face of adversity, grit is your greatest ally."

Welcome to issue #71 of fx:macro!

Summer is over and autumn has begun. I’ve taken a few weeks off, and stayed away from trading. One thing this newsletter has taught me is the value of keeping up with what’s going on overall even when I’m not trading. It used to take me two or three weeks until I got back into the market after a short break, especially during busier times of the year than August. Now, I just read my own newsletter, and it’s a pretty smooth transition back into the game.

Anyway, it looks like the dollar is still king:

There's a lot of material in this newsletter, so I included a Summary table with the most important info in one place. Everything you find there is derived from data and news in the accompanying PDFs. It's not necessary to go through them all but they provide a lot of depth and background. Skip them if you're short on time or just read the ones that are relevant for you.

If you like this newsletter please consider sharing or forwarding it to others who might be interested in it. I'm also on Twitter @fxmacroguy if you want to reach out.

Summary

Research folder with all material: Google Drive

Playbook

This is the shortest possible summary of everything you will find in the rest of this newsletter. Please check out this article about what this summary aims to provide and what its limitations are.

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Currency Drivers

For an explanation check out this link.

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Week in Review

Central bank speaker recap for the week: Download PDF

Review of central bank events and economic data for this week: Download PDF

• ECB Minutes

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI

• Canadian Manufacturing PMI

Market Analysis

• Download PDF

• Summary table, currency drivers, economic calendar, FX levels

• Charts and data on growth, inflation, interest rates, central banks, equity sectors, sentiment and positioning, market risks and more

Additional Material

Cental bank overview with the summaries of each of the latest rate decisions, rate statements and minutes: Download PDF

Central bank meeting preps for next week’s events with latest rate decision, statement, press conference and minutes, economic data since the last rate decision and summarized comments from every speaker:

• RBA: Download PDF

• BOC: Download PDF

Intraday seasonalities for currencies and major assets: Download PDF

Commitment of Traders for the relevant futures: Download PDF