RBA Rate Statement and SOMP, BoE Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report, a few PMIs and the complete FX analysis... more than 80 charts and tables in total!
Great works. Just a question, in the Macro section under Playbook for the next week, you write "market wants to believe no forward guidance means a less dovish Fed ". Why is a less dovish Fed not less hawkish Fed? Based on my understanding, Fed removed forward guidance and became data-dependent means Fed is not at bring down inflation at all cost mood, so it should be a dovish signal, hence less hawkish.
Superlative research. I would push back however on recent equity market price action being "broad based."
To the contrary, this has been somewhat skewed by heavier weighted mega cap tech counters taking the rest of the market by the scruff of its neck & pulling it to the upside. Its all been $AAPL, $GOOG, $AMZN, a bit of $META etc.
Regardless, this is superlative work (for those who like reading) 👍
I haven't looked at the individual stocks, but the megacaps dragging the market higher seems plausible: no one is talking about tech being long duration anymore. I do find the sheer number of stocks going up strong, though. Admittedly, using the 100-day moving average is a bit misleading because of the timeframe of the bear market now (the percentage of stocks above their 200-day MAs looks way less impressive), but the A/D line is confirming it. As good as it looks, I still don't believe it's sustainable over more than a few weeks at best.
Great works. Just a question, in the Macro section under Playbook for the next week, you write "market wants to believe no forward guidance means a less dovish Fed ". Why is a less dovish Fed not less hawkish Fed? Based on my understanding, Fed removed forward guidance and became data-dependent means Fed is not at bring down inflation at all cost mood, so it should be a dovish signal, hence less hawkish.
Superlative research. I would push back however on recent equity market price action being "broad based."
To the contrary, this has been somewhat skewed by heavier weighted mega cap tech counters taking the rest of the market by the scruff of its neck & pulling it to the upside. Its all been $AAPL, $GOOG, $AMZN, a bit of $META etc.
Regardless, this is superlative work (for those who like reading) 👍
Thanks for your feedback, really appreciate it!
I haven't looked at the individual stocks, but the megacaps dragging the market higher seems plausible: no one is talking about tech being long duration anymore. I do find the sheer number of stocks going up strong, though. Admittedly, using the 100-day moving average is a bit misleading because of the timeframe of the bear market now (the percentage of stocks above their 200-day MAs looks way less impressive), but the A/D line is confirming it. As good as it looks, I still don't believe it's sustainable over more than a few weeks at best.
Good catch, you're right of course: it should say "less hawkish". I'm going to change that, thanks!