Hello there…

You haven’t heard from me in two and a half years. That’s longer than it takes to forget your ex, so here’s the one-sentence version of why you subscribed: I used to write huge, comprehensive market overviews covering macro and (mostly) currencies. You probably found them useful. I know I did because it’s how I used to trade.

Then life happened, things changed, and I had to adapt. The biggest realization: I didn’t want a second job of sitting in front of screens all day watching news and markets. The second: time and effort don’t scale linearly with performance. I could get similar returns with a fraction of what I used to put in. It’s a concept a lot of aspiring traders overlook, especially the ones going for short-term setups on small timeframes.

So I shifted away from news and catalyst-driven trading toward positioning, sentiment, and narratives, and I built the tools that this style requires.

One of those tools is what I call the Newsletter Clown Show. It gives me a good read on what “the market” is currently feeling: what trades everyone has on, what everyone’s watching for, where traders are getting trapped, and where I should be looking for things to break.

The mechanics, in simple terms: I feed around 100 trading and finance newsletters into an LLM, extract structured data, and get a synthesis of what everyone thinks. There’s more to it than that, but that’s the gist. It has all the usual perks and drawbacks of LLMs: it’s not exact, the output shifts a bit from run to run, it has that unmistakable AI writing style including the m-dashes. But it’s far faster than any human could manage, it’s been genuinely useful to me, it was fun to build, and it only gets better with every new model that comes out.

The Newsletter Clown Show has been my weekly read for a while now, and it’s sharpened my overall feel for the market without requiring hours glued to a screen every day.

As for the name: writing a newsletter is always a performance for an audience. Calling trades and committing to a view in public is genuinely hard, and I have real respect for anyone who does it. When I was faced with doing that here a few years ago, I decided against it because I (rightly) worried I’d end up performing instead of trading, with every position possibly influenced by what I thought my audience wanted to see.

As for the future, I’ll keep this newsletter on an irregular schedule for now: you can expect 1-2 mails per month, maybe less.

You can read the full report below. I hope you find it as useful as I do.

See you around,
FXMG

Narrative Watch

The current consensus narratives among newsletter creators are:

1. Short duration

2. The Fed has pivoted hawkish under Warsh as a structural shift, “higher for longer”

3. Equity rotation out of AI/semis into financials, value and small caps

4. Underweight/short the dollar vs. JPY

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Newsletter Clown Show: Full Report

Consensus view over the past week, generated 2026-07-12. Based on 219 documents from 57 sources.

Hawkish Fed, Fragile Equities, and the Yen Reversal

Key takeaways

• The Fed has abandoned forward guidance; the minutes read hawkish and the committee is seriously debating further hikes^{[*][†][‡]}.

• Treasury supply and sticky inflation are pushing long‑end yields structurally higher; the consensus is short duration^{[*][†][‡]}.

• Equities are consolidating near all‑time highs on record‑low VIX but record‑low correlation and extreme positioning make the rally fragile^{[*][†][‡]}.

• The AI‑capex cycle is a double‑edged sword: it drives earnings but is increasingly debt‑funded, raising sustainability questions^{[*][†][‡]}.

• Geopolitical risk (Iran, Strait of Hormuz) is priced as contained, but a diesel‑price or oil‑shock event would rapidly reverse the soft‑landing narrative^[*][†].

• The yen may be turning: Japanese repatriation pressure and a hawkish BoJ are challenging the consensus carry‑trade view^{[*][†][‡]}.

• Gold and bitcoin are out of favor due to rising real yields, though structural bulls see a long‑term accumulation window^[*][†].

The newsletter community has landed on a remarkably unified macro framework, even if the tactical conclusions diverge. At its core sits a Federal Reserve that has abandoned forward guidance under new Chair Kevin Warsh and is now openly wrestling with persistent inflation^[*][†]. The June FOMC minutes read hawkish: Warsh tightened the language, several members entertained a hike, and ‘AI’ appeared 21 times as a source of demand‑led price pressure^[*]. The committee removed its implicit cut bias; market pricing now puts a July hike near a coin toss, with cuts largely priced out through 2026^[*][†]. Wolf Richter calls the Fed ‘lax’ for letting inflation run^[*]; Robin Brooks is a notable dissenter, arguing the Phillips curve is too flat to justify a hike and that the June CPI print will end the tightening narrative^[*]. But the majority view — from Real Investment Advice, The BondBeat, FedWatch Advisors, and LiquidityWatch — is that the rate‑cut cycle is dead and a higher‑for‑longer world is taking its place^{[*][†][‡]}.

That conviction flows straight into the bond market. The US Treasury sold $743 billion of securities in a single week, notes and bonds outstanding ballooned by $70 billion, and the 30‑year yield punched through 5.06%, the highest since 2007^[*]. Supply anxiety and an evaporating safe‑haven bid — oil‑ and geopolitics‑linked — are forcing a repricing of term premium^[*][†]. The BondBeat describes a market where ‘less guidance equals more demand for precautionary cash’ and recommends staying in 2s10s flatteners and 7s30s steepeners^[*]. Lance Roberts sees Treasuries as technically overbought and near a turning point, with yields poised to move higher still^[*]. A handful of voices, such as the AP Research note, think the sell‑off may be overdone and the soft payrolls data will eventually anchor rates^[*]. But the chorus is loud: roughly three‑quarters of the reviewed newsletters take a bearish duration stance, expecting yields to climb further on sticky inflation, heavy issuance, and a Fed unwilling to blink. If this herd were a single trader, the first and most confident position would be short US Treasuries.

Equities are where the consensus gets nervous. The S&P 500 sits within 1% of a record, but the index is being dragged higher by a narrowing leadership of mega‑cap tech — a market that feels like late‑cycle concentration^[*][†]. The VIX has collapsed below 16, yet implied correlation has hit a 20‑year low: stocks are moving wildly in isolation while the index barely budges^[*]. Lance Roberts warns that realized volatility has already doubled and that the dispersion trade is compressing the implied‑realized vol gap to the breaking point^[*][†]. Margin debt just hit a record $1.42 trillion, the net credit balance is the most negative in history, and active managers are nearly all‑in — the ingredients for a sudden air pocket if sentiment sours^{[*][†][‡]}. Goldman Sachs is actively hedging a correlation spike^[*][†]. On the other side, the fundamental story still works: forward S&P earnings are at records, the ISM is expanding, and July seasonality is famously friendly^[*][†]. Most writers are not calling for an imminent top; they are cautious bulls who want to stay invested but demand tighter stops, cheaper protection, and a rotation away from the most crowded names. The herd’s second trade, then, is a hedged long in US equities — overweight quality and value, underweight momentum, and holding a tail hedge in cheap volatility.

The most interesting contrarian bet that has gained traction in recent days is a structural long in the Japanese yen. For weeks the dominant narrative was yen‑as‑funding‑currency, with USD/JPY pushing toward 165 and the carry trade appearing unassailable^[*]. That flipped when Japan’s finance minister urged the GPIF and other pension funds to repatriate overseas assets^[*][†]. JGB yields tumbled and the yen bounced hard^[*]. Robin Brooks argues that repatriation alone cannot save the yen because it is a one‑off stock adjustment against a continuous outflow from suppressed domestic yields^[*]. But Marc Chandler, Brent Donnelly and Capital Flows Research all note that the signal is politically charged and likely to be followed by more aggressive BoJ policy^{[*][†][‡]}. The Tri Polar World frames it as part of a broader ‘US debasement trade’: capital flows out of US assets into Japan and Europe, weakening the dollar^[*]. Navigating The Market explicitly puts the carry trade unwind in focus^[*]. The single trader would not be all‑in, but the pendulum is swinging: a long yen position against the dollar — initiated as a small starter with a plan to add on confirmation — has become the third leg of the portfolio.

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TL;DR: This is going to be the last newsletter for a while. You don't need to do anything, I'll probably be back but I don't know when, and I will neither sell your email address nor send you spam in the meantime.

I've been writing fx:macro for about 20 months now, and it has grown into something I'm proud of. As I've often said: it helped me in a lot of ways to become more structured and more concise, I've met great people along the way, and I've learned so much. But it is time for a change. As is often the case in life, there are bigger and smaller reasons that lead to the same outcome:

I've spent the last month abroad with amazing people and a completely different focus away from markets. I did something similar for two months earlier this year and will do a lot more of it next year. While I enjoy the different mindset and while it's exactly what I need mentally, it doesn't work well with what and how I've been trading. So, I will need to make a change there and focus on finding a style that goes well with that: higher timeframes, less maintenance, not as close to the market as I used to be.

Other things have also come up: I have an offer for a second job that I might accept, and a few different personal projects that all need attention.

Plus, the interaction on Twitter, which was a big driver for the newsletter and a benefit for me, has become considerably worse over the last year: my feed has deteriorated in quality and I barely see interesting conversations happening anymore. It feels just noisy and it doesn't really work for me anymore.

So, what's next? As I wrote above, I'll probably be back sometime but I don't know when or how. If you want to stay on the list, you might be the first to hear. If not, then that's fine too.

Finally, thanks to everyone for your support, I really appreciate it!

See you around…

FXMG